October 7, 2026 — Update to our October 6 story. Typhoon No. 29, Koguma, strengthened on Wednesday and is forecast to become a very strong typhoon by Friday. Its track brings it near the Ogasawara Islands around Monday, October 12, the last day of the holiday weekend. Ferries to the Izu Islands were cancelled for a second day. The mainland is not threatened.
The three storms
| Typhoon | Status on Wednesday | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| No. 29 Koguma | Near Wake Island, 990 hPa, moving west | Very strong (950 hPa) near Minami-Torishima on October 9–10; near the Ogasawara Islands as a strong typhoon on October 12 |
| No. 28 Nolo | Near Wake Island, 975 hPa, moving west quickly | Curves north-northeast by the weekend; little effect on Japan expected |
| No. 27 Choi-wan | Far east of Japan, racing north-northeast | Becoming a non-tropical low; high waves on the Pacific coast through October 8 |
Koguma’s forecast is from the Japan Weather Association, issued at 4:20 pm Japan time on October 7.
What changed
- Koguma is stronger. It is now a severe tropical storm and is forecast to deepen from 990 to 950 hPa in two days.
- Ogasawara timing is firmer. The forecast puts Koguma near the islands at 3 pm on Monday, October 12. Weathernews says the islands could be significantly affected, depending on when the storm turns north.
- Wave warnings eased. Warnings for the Kanto and Tohoku Pacific coasts have been downgraded to advisories as Choi-wan departs.
- Ferries, October 7: Tokai Kisen again cancelled all high-speed jet ferries to Oshima, Toshima, Niijima, Shikinejima and Kozushima. The large ship to Oshima ran as an emergency service. Sailings to Miyakejima, Mikurajima and Hachijojima were under review, with return sailings cancelled.
- Ferries, October 8: Not yet announced (TBA).
What it means for travelers
- Mainland travel is normal. No typhoon is forecast to hit Tokyo, Honshu or Okinawa. Guam has no watches or warnings.
- Do not start an Ogasawara trip now. Ferries to the islands are infrequent, and Koguma arrives around the holiday weekend. A cancelled sailing can strand you for days.
- Izu Islands: Check Tokai Kisen’s status page each morning. Service depends on the swell, and the next storm follows early next week.
- Flying home: Do not schedule a flight home for the day after an island return.
- Stay off Pacific-facing breakwaters and beaches in Kanto and Tohoku through Thursday.
Sources
- Japan Meteorological Agency: Active typhoon data
- tenki.jp (Japan Weather Association): Typhoon No. 29 (2026): latest position and forecast track
- Weathernews: Latest tracks of the three typhoons; high waves from No. 27, Ogasawara may be affected by No. 29
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center: Significant Tropical Weather Advisory
- Tokai Kisen: Today’s operating status
- US National Weather Service Guam: Forecast office
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